8/21/08: Mission Ready.
8/20/08, 2:40PM: At present, there is little to no interest in AL94, but that could change. Earliest deployment would be Friday, Aug 22nd. The scientists were very happy about the data they collected.
7:21AM: "Perhaps Fay is going away after all. Latest forecast shows Fay only skimming the coast before heading west. If so, flights for tomorrow is off. BUT, don't let your guard down. HRD may want a landfall flight for Thursday, Aug 21st," from Dr. McFadden.
8/19/08, 9:15PM: "From the looks of it, Fay refuses to go away. Latest forecast at 9PM tonight shows it going off shore and strengthening into a hurricane before curving back into north Florida. Expect a tasking from Ocean Winds if Fay develops into a hurricane," more from Dr. McFadden.
8/19/08, 9:45AM: "Science interest in TS Fay has faded and at this time neither HRD or EMC are interested in further missions. Notice I said "at this time." If Fay should emerge off of the east coast and intensify this could change," per Dr. McFadden.
8/18-19: Planning a mission on N42 for 11 AM this morning. Follow on missions will be dependent on the location of the storm on Tues, Aug 19th. It could move across the state (Florida) and in the Atlantic, but we'll have to wait for a day or so. If TS Fay does end up in the Atlantic, expect further tasking. Aircraft relocating to New Orleans.
8/18/08, 1030 PM: "The latest 8PM bulletin has Fay completely ashore by early morning and further keeps it over land resulting in a depression by Friday. The forecast does not take it out to sea during the forecast cycle. So, what does that mean? Perhaps it indicates that it is time to relocate to the Islands for AL94. Tomorrow we will examine the pros and cons then make a decision," said Dr. McFadden.
Per Dr McFadden, Chief, Programs & P3 Director, "If you didn't like the official forecast when you went to bed last night, you may like the one issued a 5AM this morning. It moves the storm east of Tampa rather than having it on the west side. It's been moving back and forth, so suggest you check again at 8 AM. Subtle changes in the track mean large changes to the storm's impact.
8/15-17/08: Scheduled mission flight for today is a "GO." N42 is currently out on its second mission into AL92. Sat., Aug 16th is a hard down day. According to the prognosticators, this system is forecast to be over land for the next 48 hrs.
Acft and crew are scheduled to depart Barbados en route for MacDill on Sun., Aug 17th with a possible mission en route. N42 will join rotation again on Mon., Aug 18th morning.
Latest forecast (12) is not too encouraging for a continuation of the cycle and could dictate an evacuation from Tampa if the models verify. The models have been all over the place in the last couple of days, so who really knows. Time will tell.
We are continuing to do the TDR missions for EMC as tasked through CARCAH. Should this system develop into a hurricane, another contender for time comes into play, Ocean Winds group flying on N42.
8/14/08: Scheduled mission flight for today is a "GO."
8/13/08: The flight on N42 for this morning has been canceled. It's a good guess that N42 will follow N43 tomorrow morning, but a final decision on that flight will not be made until 0700. All future missions into AL92 will be flown from Barbados until the storm reaches ~70W. At that time NOAA will fly a mission en route back to MacDill AFB, Florida.
8/12/08: Aircraft departed for Barbados. The crew and aircraft will start a series of round-the-clock flights into a disturbance, known as AL92, located NE of the island. These flights are in support of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (EMC) and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) modeling work being done to improve intensity forecasts. During each mission, will be 8-10 hours in length, is designed to collect tail doppler radar data from which 3-dimensional horizontal wind fields can be computed for assimilation into the HWRF model being developed by EMC. Vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, humidity and winds will also be obtained from multiple drops of GPS sondes. These data will be used to validate the horizontal wind fields derived from the doppler radar. The deployment is expected to last approximately 5-days with both aircraft flying a mission into the system en route back to Tampa. |
8/21/08: Mission Ready.
8/20/08,2:40PM: The mission request for Thurs, Aug 21st, has been canceled. At present, there is little to no interest in AL94, but that could change. Earliest deployment would be Friday, Aug 22nd. The scientists were very happy about the data they collected.
7:21AM: "Perhaps Fay is going away after all. Latest forecast shows Fay only skimming the coast before heading west. If so, flights for tomorrow is off. BUT, don't let your guard down. HRD may want a landfall flight for Thursday, Aug 21st," from Dr. McFadden.
8/19/08, 9:15PM: "From the looks of it, Fay refuses to go away. Latest forecast at 9PM tonight shows it going off shore and strengthening into a hurricane before curving back into north Florida. Expect a tasking from Ocean Winds if Fay develops into a hurricane," more from Dr. McFadden.
8/19/08, 9:45AM: "Science interest in TS Fay has faded and at this time neither HRD or EMC are interested in further missions. Notice I said "at this time." If Fay should emerge off of the east coast and intensify this could change," per Dr. McFadden.
8/18-19: Aircraft will evacuate MacDill AFB today en route to New Orleans. Per Dr McFadden, Chief, Programs & P3 Director, "I have just been advised that the second flight on N43RF scheduled for Tuesday night has been canceled. Stay tuned for further info."
8/15-17/08: N43 down until 2300L Sat., Aug 16th. Acft and crew will depart Barbados en route for MacDill AFB at 2300L, with a possible mission en route. Plan to continue rotating missions beginning Sunday evening 2300L if storm is a player.
Latest forecast (12) is not too encouraging for a continuation of the cycle and could dictate an evacuation from Tampa if the models verify. The models have been all over the place in the last couple of days, so who really knows. Time will tell.
We are continuing to do the TDR missions for EMC as tasked through CARCAH. Should this system develop into a hurricane, another contender for time comes into play, Ocean Winds group flying on N42.
8/14/08: N43's nigh mission will also be a go. N43 finished its 2nd flight at 0600, Aug 15th.
8/13/08: Mission into AL92 schedule on N43 is a GO. It's a good guess that N42 will follow in the morning, but a final decision on that flight will not be made until 0700. All future missions into AL92 will be flown from Barbados until the storm reaches ~70W. At that time NOAA will fly a mission en route back to MacDill AFB, Florida.
8/12/08: Aircraft departed for Barbados. The crew and aircraft will start a series of round-the-clock flights into a disturbance, known as AL92, located NE of the island. These flights are in support of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (EMC) and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) modeling work being done to improve intensity forecasts. During each mission, will be 8-10 hours in length, is designed to collect tail doppler radar data from which 3-dimensional horizontal wind fields can be computed for assimilation into the HWRF model being developed by EMC. Vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, humidity and winds will also be obtained from multiple drops of GPS sondes. These data will be used to validate the horizontal wind fields derived from the doppler radar. The deployment is expected to last approximately 5-days with both aircraft flying a mission into the system en route back to Tampa.
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Aircraft currently in maintenance.
| 8/21/08: Mission Ready.
8/20/08, 2:40PM: At present, there is little to no interest in AL94, but that could change. Earliest deployment would be Friday, Aug 22nd. The scientists were very happy about the data they collected.
8/19/08: Today's GIV mission around TS Fay is canceled. There are no additional taskings for Gonzo at this time. Unless anything changes with MacDill airfield, the GIV crew will return to MAFB on Wednesday.
8/18-19: The GIV day crew have been tasked with a follow-on mission tomorrow, Aug 19th, T.O. at 1730Z. Therefore, the day crew will recover from today's mission flight a Lakefront Airport. Expect tomorrow's flight to be Lakefront to Lakefront.
Per Paul Flaherty, Flt Dir and GIV Director, "According to NHC, the models are quite different in what TS Fay should do after moving out over the Atlantic. A couple of models have it heading up into Canada, while another has it meandering off the East Coast of FL for 2-3 days. The other models are somewhere in between. The concern in the inconsistency of the forecasts is the reason for the change in plans.
As long as there aren't any unforeseen issues, the GIV day crew should push ahead with this plan. I would think the most likely scenario would have us back in Tampa on Wed or Thurs of this week."
8/15/08: The GIV has been tasked to fly a surveillance mission around what is currently AL92. NHC is working on the track at this time. The expectation is for a follow-on flight for Sunday, both with 1330L T.O. As of now, there has not been a request for any overnight (0130L T.O.) missions.
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